TLDR; Gold bugs may be right, but they might not get it…
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TLDR; Gold bugs may be right, but they might not get it right.
Today I was thinking about institutional and nation state level safe haven assets over the next 20 years. Gold, bitcoin and government bonds are considered stores of value. News from Turkey makes me give it more consideration.
Turkey is having a currency crisis; the Lira is crashing. I believe this will happen in many, if not most, countries as a response to government debt, money printing and the track record of fiat currencies failing.
In a liquidity crisis you don't sell what you want, you sell what you can. Turkey sold (a lot of) gold and US Treasury bonds. According to the article this selling of gold dropped the global price per ounce by $1,000. In other instances in the past 5 years institutions experiencing a liquidity crisis have sold bitcoin in the same way.
My thought was this: Nation states may sell stores of value in a financial crisis, but not stores of utility. Oil.
Today I was thinking about institutional and nation state level safe haven assets over the next 20 years. Gold, bitcoin and government bonds are considered stores of value. News from Turkey makes me give it more consideration.
Turkey is having a currency crisis; the Lira is crashing. I believe this will happen in many, if not most, countries as a response to government debt, money printing and the track record of fiat currencies failing.
In a liquidity crisis you don't sell what you want, you sell what you can. Turkey sold (a lot of) gold and US Treasury bonds. According to the article this selling of gold dropped the global price per ounce by $1,000. In other instances in the past 5 years institutions experiencing a liquidity crisis have sold bitcoin in the same way.
My thought was this: Nation states may sell stores of value in a financial crisis, but not stores of utility. Oil.
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get you some # Rhodium (Rh) is one of the rarest and most valuable precious metals in the world , often far more expensive than #gold or #platinum . As of mid-2026, its price hovers around $9,000–$10,000 per troy ounce (roughly $300+ per gram), with a history of extreme volatility—it peaked near $30,000/oz in 2021.
The rarer the metal, the more difficult it becomes to liquidize it though.
#silver is MUCH MUCH BETTER. upside is way higher percentage wise than gold. and dont miss the 100 year trend? but once the huge gold reserves all over the world are discovered supply will be huge, didny Uganda just find a shit ton of gold? and of course the grand canyon is loaded with gold!
the lira hahahaha so its not worth the paper its printed on and they have hundred dollar bills under their matresses, and the interest is insane! so suckers trade usd for TRY ...something here should be obvious! Oil is like water sell it to 0 look at the futures.
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Absolutely correct. However that only counts for nation states, the private individual will have great difficulties in storing oil or lumber in great quantities (in the case of oil they have to fear militaric intervention of the US of A aswell). What also happened in past financial crisis is that nation states declared bank vault stored gold deposits of citizens their own. Ultimatly the safest assets are own private property, a stocked pantry, own energy, lead and lots of courage.
As a PM bug, i just zoom out whenever i feel doubts and re-read edward griffin's "Creature from jekyll island".
Germany is a different example though, we havent sold off our gold (which prolly isnt even there still at fort knox) but completely fucked up our imports of utility (gas, oil). Now we have "green" energy that we cant use in winter (we use gaspowered electricity now) and on some summerdays we produce too much so we have to pay other countries to take it.
As a PM bug, i just zoom out whenever i feel doubts and re-read edward griffin's "Creature from jekyll island".
Germany is a different example though, we havent sold off our gold (which prolly isnt even there still at fort knox) but completely fucked up our imports of utility (gas, oil). Now we have "green" energy that we cant use in winter (we use gaspowered electricity now) and on some summerdays we produce too much so we have to pay other countries to take it.
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Agreed, my thesis doesn't apply to retail and I think the stores of values ultimately win but they could fall at the same time oil remains stable or up during crisis periods. I don't have a trade on, it was just a thought.
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I mean, the selling of gold to maintain liquidity for a country makes it a case for gold in a way. The current ongoing "oil squeeze" shows that. Not the first "oil crisis" we've had thus far tho (petrodollar/middle east yadda yadda). To be fair, the amount of paper precious metal contracts by far exceeds the available material stored at the COMEX & LBME and it's value measured in a devaluating currency like USD acts more like plato's cave to retail investors. To me, precious metals remain money and fiatmoney is just credit. There could also be a case made that the price surpression of precious metals is strategical to maintain 1. The dollar hegemony (rise of gold/silver price signals crisis and destability) 2. Industrial advantage (silver especially for electronics) 3. central banks accumulating more. We will see what time and wars will bring, i for one believe in hedging and investing diverse. I may not be accumulating wealth in the short term (actually still up on crypto & pm's while my stockfund at the bank put my investments in the red) but im fairly certain in a not so distant future we will see a massive change in the world financial system.
It will be painful but what you said will happen. The paper derivatives of commodities is sketchy, but so is driving down to a bullet proof window to sell physical. Physical settlement is a problem.
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only a problem if the country is a low trust society. History proves that trading and bartering with pm's worked (until governments interfered). Theft and extortion apply to all goods. Pm backed crypto could be a solution but a return to sound money is inevitable.