I built a 90-day ETH model using data + AI. It just hit…
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I built a 90-day ETH model using data + AI. It just hit 68% BUY with 5/5 window agreement. Here's the full calculation.
I've spent the last 3 months building a personal system for reading macro + technical signals on ETH. I combine data analysis with AI (Claude Opus) to stress-test my reasoning, not replace it. The AI flags what I miss. This post is me following my own advice out loud.
This is not a prediction. It's a calculation with explicit assumptions.
**The 90-day context**
ETH is +8.78% over 90 days. 20 up days vs 12 down days. Price is currently \~$2,326, just above the EMA200 ($2,314) but below EMA20 ($2,338) and EMA50 ($2,354). That's a post-correction base-building regime, not a breakdown.
The March Iran-war drawdown took ETH to $1,972. That was the capitulation low. A ceasefire-driven rally followed, peaking at $2,434 on Apr 17. The current pullback is the *third higher low* in the recovery sequence. Structure is intact.
The ETH/BTC ratio (0.0308) is bouncing off 2026 lows. Average 90-day sentiment: 46 (Hopeful). Macro sentiment index: -12. The market absorbed the geopolitical shock and is rotating back toward risk. This matches the data.
**The tactical setup**
Entry zone: **$2,260–2,320**
Signals I'm watching:
* MACD bullish cross forming (histogram: +0.081)
* Bollinger Band squeeze at 2.54% width compression before expansion
* Funding rate negative (-0.000243) shorts are paying longs, squeeze setup
* Fear & Greed at 27 (Fear zone) historically favorable entry territory
* RSI14 at 38 oversold leaning, not extreme
The Apr 7–13 analog: post-spike compression resolved +7.5% higher. The current structure rhymes with that. The AI model flags a Day 3 shakeout toward \~$2,270 — which is actually my preferred entry, not a warning.
My 7-day forecast shows +6.8% expected move from the current level. I'm sharing this not as gospel but because the signal alignment between the model's triggers and what I observe technically is unusually strong. Confidence of 68% means the model itself is not certain and I'm not treating it as certainty either.
I ran this against war news, macro events, and funding data for the full 90-day window. The geopolitical noise has been priced in. The setup looks clean.
**Where I'm wrong if this fails**
* A close below $2,200 invalidates the higher-low structure
* New geopolitical escalation not in the 90-day data window
* BTC dominance continuing to rise rather than rotating into alts
* Funding squeeze resolves down instead of up (rare but possible)
Not financial advice. I'm posting this to think out loud and get pushback. If you see a flaw in the logic, say it plainly.
Thank you for reading.
#cryptocurrency
source
I've spent the last 3 months building a personal system for reading macro + technical signals on ETH. I combine data analysis with AI (Claude Opus) to stress-test my reasoning, not replace it. The AI flags what I miss. This post is me following my own advice out loud.
This is not a prediction. It's a calculation with explicit assumptions.
**The 90-day context**
ETH is +8.78% over 90 days. 20 up days vs 12 down days. Price is currently \~$2,326, just above the EMA200 ($2,314) but below EMA20 ($2,338) and EMA50 ($2,354). That's a post-correction base-building regime, not a breakdown.
The March Iran-war drawdown took ETH to $1,972. That was the capitulation low. A ceasefire-driven rally followed, peaking at $2,434 on Apr 17. The current pullback is the *third higher low* in the recovery sequence. Structure is intact.
The ETH/BTC ratio (0.0308) is bouncing off 2026 lows. Average 90-day sentiment: 46 (Hopeful). Macro sentiment index: -12. The market absorbed the geopolitical shock and is rotating back toward risk. This matches the data.
**The tactical setup**
Entry zone: **$2,260–2,320**
Signals I'm watching:
* MACD bullish cross forming (histogram: +0.081)
* Bollinger Band squeeze at 2.54% width compression before expansion
* Funding rate negative (-0.000243) shorts are paying longs, squeeze setup
* Fear & Greed at 27 (Fear zone) historically favorable entry territory
* RSI14 at 38 oversold leaning, not extreme
The Apr 7–13 analog: post-spike compression resolved +7.5% higher. The current structure rhymes with that. The AI model flags a Day 3 shakeout toward \~$2,270 — which is actually my preferred entry, not a warning.
My 7-day forecast shows +6.8% expected move from the current level. I'm sharing this not as gospel but because the signal alignment between the model's triggers and what I observe technically is unusually strong. Confidence of 68% means the model itself is not certain and I'm not treating it as certainty either.
I ran this against war news, macro events, and funding data for the full 90-day window. The geopolitical noise has been priced in. The setup looks clean.
**Where I'm wrong if this fails**
* A close below $2,200 invalidates the higher-low structure
* New geopolitical escalation not in the 90-day data window
* BTC dominance continuing to rise rather than rotating into alts
* Funding squeeze resolves down instead of up (rare but possible)
Not financial advice. I'm posting this to think out loud and get pushback. If you see a flaw in the logic, say it plainly.
Thank you for reading.
#cryptocurrency
source
| 3,000 mlx | |
| 5 | |
| 0 |