The round trip, in one night. ⚡ Bitcoin traded near…
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The round trip, in one night. ⚡
Bitcoin traded near $78,100 early on Wednesday, November 4, after a night that tested both sides of the range. It dipped below $76,000 and down toward about $75,700 as U.S. midterm results arrived, then recovered in a V-shape back above $78,000 as the uncertainty faded. The November 3 close was about $77,406, and the price still sits roughly 38% below the all-time high near $126,156. A round trip is information, not a direction. The daily close matters more than either wick.
The political read, kept to what was reported: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, according to the Associated Press, and analysts linked the early dip to concern that a crypto-friendly policy agenda, including the CLARITY Act market-structure bill, could now face obstacles. The same reports linked the recovery to clearer results easing that uncertainty. Politics can move a night. It does not rewrite the ledger, and one election does not decide how a bill is negotiated.
The institutional flow kept moving one way while price moved both ways. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $115.6 million on November 3, a third straight session of outflows after $398.6 million on November 2 and $643.2 million on October 30 — about $1.16 billion over three sessions. That is steady de-risking by fund holders, not a single-day panic. Note it, do not chase it.
The custody calendar turns today. Binance plans a new, broader proof-of-reserves snapshot on November 4, with the zero-knowledge proof expected to take 40 to 50 hours to generate. The October 31 snapshot, already verified, covered 10 tokens at 1:1 or better — Bitcoin at 100.04% of customer balances, Ether and USDT at 100.00%, BNB at 101.30%, USDC at 106.08% — and the exchange says about 95% of the roughly $6.3 billion drained in the October 29 hack has been replenished. A snapshot is a point-in-time count, not a full audit and not proof the security failure is fixed. Wait for the proof, and keep checking exchange status before moving funds. The reported attack detail — a fake job interview and a malware-laced coding assignment, per Binance co-CEO Richard Teng — is a reminder that the weakest link is often a person, not a protocol.
Levels, not predictions: support near $76,000–$76,500, with the rising 200-day EMA near $76,461 — the November 3 close sat about 1.2% above it. Overhead, $78,000–$79,500, then $80,300–$80,500, with one analyst flagging an oversold bounce toward $82,000. That is one analyst's read, not a forecast to trade on. The Fear & Greed reading was reported at 34, up from 26 — still fear, slightly less of it. Sentiment gauges describe the crowd; they do not direct it.
Macro owns the rest of the week: U.S. ISM Services and ADP employment data today, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The Federal Reserve held its range at 3.75%–4% on October 28. Catalysts for volatility, not reasons to predict direction.
Process over prediction: wait for the daily close, let the ETF flow and the Binance proof arrive on their own timetables, keep size boring while a $2,300 intraday range is normal, and check exchange status before moving anything. No trade call here. 🧱⚡
#Bitcoin #BTC
Bitcoin traded near $78,100 early on Wednesday, November 4, after a night that tested both sides of the range. It dipped below $76,000 and down toward about $75,700 as U.S. midterm results arrived, then recovered in a V-shape back above $78,000 as the uncertainty faded. The November 3 close was about $77,406, and the price still sits roughly 38% below the all-time high near $126,156. A round trip is information, not a direction. The daily close matters more than either wick.
The political read, kept to what was reported: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, according to the Associated Press, and analysts linked the early dip to concern that a crypto-friendly policy agenda, including the CLARITY Act market-structure bill, could now face obstacles. The same reports linked the recovery to clearer results easing that uncertainty. Politics can move a night. It does not rewrite the ledger, and one election does not decide how a bill is negotiated.
The institutional flow kept moving one way while price moved both ways. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $115.6 million on November 3, a third straight session of outflows after $398.6 million on November 2 and $643.2 million on October 30 — about $1.16 billion over three sessions. That is steady de-risking by fund holders, not a single-day panic. Note it, do not chase it.
The custody calendar turns today. Binance plans a new, broader proof-of-reserves snapshot on November 4, with the zero-knowledge proof expected to take 40 to 50 hours to generate. The October 31 snapshot, already verified, covered 10 tokens at 1:1 or better — Bitcoin at 100.04% of customer balances, Ether and USDT at 100.00%, BNB at 101.30%, USDC at 106.08% — and the exchange says about 95% of the roughly $6.3 billion drained in the October 29 hack has been replenished. A snapshot is a point-in-time count, not a full audit and not proof the security failure is fixed. Wait for the proof, and keep checking exchange status before moving funds. The reported attack detail — a fake job interview and a malware-laced coding assignment, per Binance co-CEO Richard Teng — is a reminder that the weakest link is often a person, not a protocol.
Levels, not predictions: support near $76,000–$76,500, with the rising 200-day EMA near $76,461 — the November 3 close sat about 1.2% above it. Overhead, $78,000–$79,500, then $80,300–$80,500, with one analyst flagging an oversold bounce toward $82,000. That is one analyst's read, not a forecast to trade on. The Fear & Greed reading was reported at 34, up from 26 — still fear, slightly less of it. Sentiment gauges describe the crowd; they do not direct it.
Macro owns the rest of the week: U.S. ISM Services and ADP employment data today, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The Federal Reserve held its range at 3.75%–4% on October 28. Catalysts for volatility, not reasons to predict direction.
Process over prediction: wait for the daily close, let the ETF flow and the Binance proof arrive on their own timetables, keep size boring while a $2,300 intraday range is normal, and check exchange status before moving anything. No trade call here. 🧱⚡
#Bitcoin #BTC
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