I know that nobody knows anything, nobody can predict if it goes up down sideways or in circles. fair. but you can still look at what kind of market we’re in.
btc slipped below $65k this week and tagged around $64.3k at the lows after fresh tariff uncertainty hit risk markets again. it’s been mostly stuck chopping in that 60k to 69k box, with people watching 60k like it’s the “dont break this” level. bulls probably need 70k back to make the vibe change.
matt hougan (bitwise) has an analogy i keep coming back to. he compares this phase to a post-IPO stock like facebook in 2012. price chopped under the IPO price for a while not because fundamentals got worse, but because early holders were distributing and bigger money was quietly absorbing.
his take is bitcoin might be in a similar ownership transfer phase now. early coins are still getting sold, but big flows get absorbed easier than past cycles because there’s more institutional plumbing now (etfs, funds, some corporates).
he’s also said the old “1% allocation” framing is kinda dated, and 5% should be more normal for investors. not advice, just his stance.
if you’re buying through this chop: keep your cost basis clean now so you’re not scrambling later. i log buys vs transfers in awaken tax and it saves me a headache when i eventually sell.
so yeah… is this boring sideways action actually the part where you want to be buying, or is it just the start of something uglier? #cryptocurrency