Claude Monte-Carlo Simulations I reconstructed my…
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Claude Monte-Carlo Simulations
I reconstructed my retirement portfolio and then ran Monte-Carlo simulations that randomly introduced 2-3 known past bear markets randomly into a 6% growth path for a 60:40 allocation over 15-20 years and compared that to the 6% continuous growth control. Then I overlaid that with additional one time capital expenditures for various Home improvements and then measured the distribution of outcomes. Essentially that helped proof the thesis that estimated expenses and income from growth and other income would very likely be sufficient to cover 20+ years.
Should I trust an AI modeling these sequence of event risks? I am a self-directed Investor but I also could run it by a Fidelity advisor which my wife I am sure would rather do anyways. I prefer doing things myself.
#business
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I reconstructed my retirement portfolio and then ran Monte-Carlo simulations that randomly introduced 2-3 known past bear markets randomly into a 6% growth path for a 60:40 allocation over 15-20 years and compared that to the 6% continuous growth control. Then I overlaid that with additional one time capital expenditures for various Home improvements and then measured the distribution of outcomes. Essentially that helped proof the thesis that estimated expenses and income from growth and other income would very likely be sufficient to cover 20+ years.
Should I trust an AI modeling these sequence of event risks? I am a self-directed Investor but I also could run it by a Fidelity advisor which my wife I am sure would rather do anyways. I prefer doing things myself.
#business
source
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