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Hurricane Erin Reintensification and Mandatory Evacuation Order in NC
**\*IMPORTANT\***
Dare County, NC, is under a mandatory evacuation order
For more information, please follow the guidance from Dare County's official website https://www.darenc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/9169/17
***TOO CLARIFY, there is at this moment little to no chance of a direct landfall anywhere in the United States. This does not mean Erin does not pose a danger, however.***
As of right now, Erin will likely return to Cat 5 status. Even the European model - which is among the more conservative hurricane models currently - is modeling 156 mph sustained winds by Wednesday Night.
The Korean, German, and North American models are forecasting a minimum pressure between 905-899mb by Wednesday - these have thus far been the most robust and have consistently forecasted this since last Wednesday. If the Korean model's prediction comes to fruition, Erin can displace Camille as the furthest North instance of a 900mb pressure (*or lower*) in a tropical cyclone in the record. This is two days out, however, so it is still very much up in the air.
What we do know is that Erin will continue intensifying into a very powerful storm and will be producing life-threatening conditions along the coast, and especially in the outerbanks. The outer banks can likely expect several hours of gale-force winds and possibly a brief period of sustained hurricane-force winds by Thursday, depending on the storm's intensity, size, and how close it is.
The European model is currently projecting maximum wave heights of 100 ft between the Carolinas and Bermuda, with every point between the Outer Banks and Fort Lauderdale projecting 20-10-foot waves. This will produce life-threatening surf and current conditions, and it would be advised to stay away from the beach - especially if you are a weak swimmer.
As for anyone who lives in the Outer Banks, I would follow the aforementioned guidance and look to local authorities for more information.
https://preview.redd.it/rus8tjy4mpjf1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=647bddd71288d394141ae8517898fcc0375b1ee1
#science
**\*IMPORTANT\***
Dare County, NC, is under a mandatory evacuation order
For more information, please follow the guidance from Dare County's official website https://www.darenc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/9169/17
***TOO CLARIFY, there is at this moment little to no chance of a direct landfall anywhere in the United States. This does not mean Erin does not pose a danger, however.***
As of right now, Erin will likely return to Cat 5 status. Even the European model - which is among the more conservative hurricane models currently - is modeling 156 mph sustained winds by Wednesday Night.
The Korean, German, and North American models are forecasting a minimum pressure between 905-899mb by Wednesday - these have thus far been the most robust and have consistently forecasted this since last Wednesday. If the Korean model's prediction comes to fruition, Erin can displace Camille as the furthest North instance of a 900mb pressure (*or lower*) in a tropical cyclone in the record. This is two days out, however, so it is still very much up in the air.
What we do know is that Erin will continue intensifying into a very powerful storm and will be producing life-threatening conditions along the coast, and especially in the outerbanks. The outer banks can likely expect several hours of gale-force winds and possibly a brief period of sustained hurricane-force winds by Thursday, depending on the storm's intensity, size, and how close it is.
The European model is currently projecting maximum wave heights of 100 ft between the Carolinas and Bermuda, with every point between the Outer Banks and Fort Lauderdale projecting 20-10-foot waves. This will produce life-threatening surf and current conditions, and it would be advised to stay away from the beach - especially if you are a weak swimmer.
As for anyone who lives in the Outer Banks, I would follow the aforementioned guidance and look to local authorities for more information.
https://preview.redd.it/rus8tjy4mpjf1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=647bddd71288d394141ae8517898fcc0375b1ee1
#science
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