Brent crude hits $100 and the Fed's rate path just got a…
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Brent crude hits $100 and the Fed's rate path just got a lot more complicated
Six months of tanker warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and hedge funds loading up on fuel positions have pushed 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟎𝟎 for the first time since July. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers. Iran claims retaliatory strikes on American vessels. Neither side is backing down.
The inflation angle is obvious, but the Fed angle is worse 🔥. A sustained triple-digit oil price makes it nearly impossible to justify cuts without looking like it's ignoring energy-driven CPI, and nearly impossible to hold rates without accelerating a consumer spending squeeze that's already visible in the data.
Every sector that runs on margins, which is most of them, is now repricing against an oil floor that has military conflict as its support level, not supply fundamentals. That floor does not move until the Strait does.
#industry
Six months of tanker warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and hedge funds loading up on fuel positions have pushed 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏𝟎𝟎 for the first time since July. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers. Iran claims retaliatory strikes on American vessels. Neither side is backing down.
The inflation angle is obvious, but the Fed angle is worse 🔥. A sustained triple-digit oil price makes it nearly impossible to justify cuts without looking like it's ignoring energy-driven CPI, and nearly impossible to hold rates without accelerating a consumer spending squeeze that's already visible in the data.
Every sector that runs on margins, which is most of them, is now repricing against an oil floor that has military conflict as its support level, not supply fundamentals. That floor does not move until the Strait does.
#industry
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