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TfffObjective Analysis of Wimbledon Men's Draw
I analyzed the Wimbledon Gentlemen's Draw announced today using Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html or forecasting. They suggest using a 50/50 blend of overall (surface independent) Elo and grass Elo (referred to as "gElo" on the website). Sinner has the best gElo at 2050.0, ollowed by Djokovic (2040.0), Alcaraz (2022.0), Medvedev (1912.2), and Hurkacz (1885.1). For further context, Dimitrov has the tenth best gElo at 1827.4, and Bautista Agut has the 32nd best at 1717.1.
A common question after the draw is released is which quarter of the draw is the strongest. I calculated the strength of each quarter of the draw by averaging together the gElo of the top eight players in the quarter (Table 1). The quarter with the highest average gElo among the top eight is Sinner's (average gElo of top eight = 1832.3), ollowed by Djokovic's (1810.7), Zverev's (1803.8), and Alcaraz's (1788.3).
Table 1. Average gElo of Top Eight in Each Quarter https://preview.redd.it/x6og0i92ib9d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=85d40d5c05b3a1143f9ac52064efcef30cd76b10
Another common question is which of the top seeds has the toughest or easiest path to the semifinals. For this, I looked at the most likely matchup (using gElo for predictions) for each of the top four seeds through the quarterfinals and averaged the gElo of their forecasted opponents (Table 2). For example, Sinner will play Yannick Hanfmann in round 1 (Jannik-on-Yannick violence) and is projected (based on gElo) to play Berrettini in round 2, Griekspoor in round 3, Jarry in round 4, and Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Sinner has the toughest path to the semifinals with an average opponent gElo of 1760.0. he next toughest path is Zverev's (1739.9), then Alcaraz's (1679.9); and Djokovic has the easiest path (1645.4).
Table 2. Average gElo of Predicted Opponents through Quarterfinals https://preview.redd.it/surxog7tjb9d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8018a31fdcffdbb020eec2e893d17c3b5ab5eeb5
While Djokovic has a tough projected quarterfinals matchup with Hurkacz, that's his only matchup against a player in the top 20 of the gElo rankings. His first three projected matchups are all easier than any of the first three projected matchups for the other top seeds. Sinner has the most difficult first round, second round (Berrettini, 1826.3), and quarterfinals matchups. Three of his five matchups are against players in the top 16 of the gElo rankings. Zverev has the most difficult third (Draper, 1820.0) and fourth (Fritz, 1789.4) round matchups, and three of his five matchups are against opponents in the top 20 of the gElo rankings. The only top-20 gElo opponent in Alcaraz's way is Tommy Paul (1857.7) in the quarterfinals.
A few other little tidbits:
* Berrettini is the best unseeded player, followed by Fucsovics (1767.4) and Struff (1764.3). All three are in Sinner's quarter.
* Lloyd Harris (1655.5) had to qualify, but he actually has a better gElo than most of the field, 44th best in the world. He's projected to win his first and second round matchups against Alex Michelsen (1584.6) and Ben Shelton (1579.9), respectively. Other qualifiers projected to win their first round match are Cristian Garin (1618.7) over Juncheng Shang (1557.8), Zizou Bergs (1633.2) over Arthur Cazaux (1569.8), Lucas Pouille (1602.7) over Laslo Djere (1595.3), and Alejandro Moro Canas (1474.1) over wildcard Jacob Fearnley (who has no gElo).
* The only wildcard projected to win a match is Billy Harris (1597.6) over Jaume Munar (1499.9) in the first round.
* Etcheverry (1546.3), the 30th seed, is the worst seeded player on grass, 93rd in the world. He's still predicted to win his first round matchup against Nardi (1519.0), though. The following seeded players, however, are projected to lose in the first round: 18th seed Sebastian Baez (1611.7) to Brandon Nakashima (1682.2), 24th seed Alejandro Tabilo (1620.4) to Dan Evans (1643.1), and 31st seed Mariano Navone (1575.1) to Sonego (1651.4).
* The player with the lowest gElo in the entire draw is qualifier Maxime Janvier (1354.5), who matches up with Zhizhen Zhang in the first round.
* Darkhorse pick for Wimbledon champion, Denis Shapovalov (1662.5), is projected to lose his first round match against Jarry (1698.1).
* Andy Murray's (1760.0) health is obviously in question, but he is favored to win his first two matchups against Tomas Machac (1683.6) and Cerundolo (1698.9)...
* ...before losing to Hubie "Big-Four-Retirer" Hurkacz in round 3.
#sport
I analyzed the Wimbledon Gentlemen's Draw announced today using Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html or forecasting. They suggest using a 50/50 blend of overall (surface independent) Elo and grass Elo (referred to as "gElo" on the website). Sinner has the best gElo at 2050.0, ollowed by Djokovic (2040.0), Alcaraz (2022.0), Medvedev (1912.2), and Hurkacz (1885.1). For further context, Dimitrov has the tenth best gElo at 1827.4, and Bautista Agut has the 32nd best at 1717.1.
A common question after the draw is released is which quarter of the draw is the strongest. I calculated the strength of each quarter of the draw by averaging together the gElo of the top eight players in the quarter (Table 1). The quarter with the highest average gElo among the top eight is Sinner's (average gElo of top eight = 1832.3), ollowed by Djokovic's (1810.7), Zverev's (1803.8), and Alcaraz's (1788.3).
Table 1. Average gElo of Top Eight in Each Quarter https://preview.redd.it/x6og0i92ib9d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=85d40d5c05b3a1143f9ac52064efcef30cd76b10
Another common question is which of the top seeds has the toughest or easiest path to the semifinals. For this, I looked at the most likely matchup (using gElo for predictions) for each of the top four seeds through the quarterfinals and averaged the gElo of their forecasted opponents (Table 2). For example, Sinner will play Yannick Hanfmann in round 1 (Jannik-on-Yannick violence) and is projected (based on gElo) to play Berrettini in round 2, Griekspoor in round 3, Jarry in round 4, and Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Sinner has the toughest path to the semifinals with an average opponent gElo of 1760.0. he next toughest path is Zverev's (1739.9), then Alcaraz's (1679.9); and Djokovic has the easiest path (1645.4).
Table 2. Average gElo of Predicted Opponents through Quarterfinals https://preview.redd.it/surxog7tjb9d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8018a31fdcffdbb020eec2e893d17c3b5ab5eeb5
While Djokovic has a tough projected quarterfinals matchup with Hurkacz, that's his only matchup against a player in the top 20 of the gElo rankings. His first three projected matchups are all easier than any of the first three projected matchups for the other top seeds. Sinner has the most difficult first round, second round (Berrettini, 1826.3), and quarterfinals matchups. Three of his five matchups are against players in the top 16 of the gElo rankings. Zverev has the most difficult third (Draper, 1820.0) and fourth (Fritz, 1789.4) round matchups, and three of his five matchups are against opponents in the top 20 of the gElo rankings. The only top-20 gElo opponent in Alcaraz's way is Tommy Paul (1857.7) in the quarterfinals.
A few other little tidbits:
* Berrettini is the best unseeded player, followed by Fucsovics (1767.4) and Struff (1764.3). All three are in Sinner's quarter.
* Lloyd Harris (1655.5) had to qualify, but he actually has a better gElo than most of the field, 44th best in the world. He's projected to win his first and second round matchups against Alex Michelsen (1584.6) and Ben Shelton (1579.9), respectively. Other qualifiers projected to win their first round match are Cristian Garin (1618.7) over Juncheng Shang (1557.8), Zizou Bergs (1633.2) over Arthur Cazaux (1569.8), Lucas Pouille (1602.7) over Laslo Djere (1595.3), and Alejandro Moro Canas (1474.1) over wildcard Jacob Fearnley (who has no gElo).
* The only wildcard projected to win a match is Billy Harris (1597.6) over Jaume Munar (1499.9) in the first round.
* Etcheverry (1546.3), the 30th seed, is the worst seeded player on grass, 93rd in the world. He's still predicted to win his first round matchup against Nardi (1519.0), though. The following seeded players, however, are projected to lose in the first round: 18th seed Sebastian Baez (1611.7) to Brandon Nakashima (1682.2), 24th seed Alejandro Tabilo (1620.4) to Dan Evans (1643.1), and 31st seed Mariano Navone (1575.1) to Sonego (1651.4).
* The player with the lowest gElo in the entire draw is qualifier Maxime Janvier (1354.5), who matches up with Zhizhen Zhang in the first round.
* Darkhorse pick for Wimbledon champion, Denis Shapovalov (1662.5), is projected to lose his first round match against Jarry (1698.1).
* Andy Murray's (1760.0) health is obviously in question, but he is favored to win his first two matchups against Tomas Machac (1683.6) and Cerundolo (1698.9)...
* ...before losing to Hubie "Big-Four-Retirer" Hurkacz in round 3.
#sport
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