How payouts are calculated TL;DR Your payout = the amount…
25 reactions
How payouts are calculated
TL;DR Your payout = the amount you staked, plus a percentage of the losing side's Millix weighted by how much risk the market assigned to your prediction relative to where the market ended up. Predicting early or against the crowd on a correct call returns more than predicting once the outcome was already obvious.
Explained
Everyone who predicts the correct outcome gets their original stake back.
All the Millix staked on the incorrect side (the "profit pool") gets split among the correct predictors as a bonus. The bonus isn't split evenly, and it isn't split purely by the size of predictions. It's split based on how the market agreed with your prediction at the time you made it. The further the market's probability was from the final outcome when you made your prediction, the bigger your share of the bonus.
Why the market probability matters
Making a prediction moves the market and increases its implied chance of being correct.
If you predict the outcome when the market priced it at 20% likely, the market says you are taking a bigger risk than if the market priced the outcome at 60%.
If you predict the same outcome after it was already priced at 90% likely, you were mostly confirming what the market already believed. Less risk, less reward.
Both predictions were "right" but the first one took more risk to say so, so they earn a bigger share of the losers' money.
Example
Total pool: 1,000 MLX. Market resolves "Yes."
| Predictor | Stake | Probability of Yes when they stake
| Alice | 100 | 20%
| Bob | 200 | 60%
Amount staked by correct predictions: 300
Amount staked by incorrect predictions (profit pool): 700
Risk Weighting = Final probability − Probability when prediction was made * Stake
Alice: 0.8 × 100 = 80
Bob: 0.4 × 200 = 80 (tied)
Bonus splits evenly: 350 each
Alice: 100 + 350 = 450 → 4.5x return
Bob: 200 + 350 = 550 → 2.75x return
Alice staked less Millix but predicted when it disagreed with the market more than when Bob staked.
TL;DR Your payout = the amount you staked, plus a percentage of the losing side's Millix weighted by how much risk the market assigned to your prediction relative to where the market ended up. Predicting early or against the crowd on a correct call returns more than predicting once the outcome was already obvious.
Explained
Everyone who predicts the correct outcome gets their original stake back.
All the Millix staked on the incorrect side (the "profit pool") gets split among the correct predictors as a bonus. The bonus isn't split evenly, and it isn't split purely by the size of predictions. It's split based on how the market agreed with your prediction at the time you made it. The further the market's probability was from the final outcome when you made your prediction, the bigger your share of the bonus.
Why the market probability matters
Making a prediction moves the market and increases its implied chance of being correct.
If you predict the outcome when the market priced it at 20% likely, the market says you are taking a bigger risk than if the market priced the outcome at 60%.
If you predict the same outcome after it was already priced at 90% likely, you were mostly confirming what the market already believed. Less risk, less reward.
Both predictions were "right" but the first one took more risk to say so, so they earn a bigger share of the losers' money.
Example
Total pool: 1,000 MLX. Market resolves "Yes."
| Predictor | Stake | Probability of Yes when they stake
| Alice | 100 | 20%
| Bob | 200 | 60%
Amount staked by correct predictions: 300
Amount staked by incorrect predictions (profit pool): 700
Risk Weighting = Final probability − Probability when prediction was made * Stake
Alice: 0.8 × 100 = 80
Bob: 0.4 × 200 = 80 (tied)
Bonus splits evenly: 350 each
Alice: 100 + 350 = 450 → 4.5x return
Bob: 200 + 350 = 550 → 2.75x return
Alice staked less Millix but predicted when it disagreed with the market more than when Bob staked.
10
1
| 529,000 mlx | |
| 408 | |
| 25 |
comments
Thank you very much. 🥰
I thought that was the reason too.
Those who place their bets late or in the last minutes of the match will get less profit.
That's so correct!!! 👍
I thought that was the reason too.
Those who place their bets late or in the last minutes of the match will get less profit.
That's so correct!!! 👍
2
When I placed my bet of 5 million, it clearly showed that I would receive around 7 million if I won. After I placed my bet, other people invested 9 million on England. This looks like a clear scam. You should honor the payout that was displayed at the time I placed my bet, not change the calculation afterward.
1
It was 7 million at that point, assuming no one else placed a bet. That's only logical... if others join in, the value changes. How is that a scam? It's the same with all betting or lottery systems.
2
Just stay away from me, you psycho woman. Even looking at your face makes me angry. You have such an awful-looking face. You're always just bootlicker.
Awwwwww, are you crying now? Just imagine my face belongs right here. If you don't like it, that's YOUR problem, not mine.
2
Deal with your own problems and leave me out of it. You're trying to redefine something that is clearly a scam, but it's a scam, plain and simple. Maybe other people are afraid to speak up, which is why they stay silent, but I'm not afraid. I want what is rightfully mine, and I won't settle for anything less.
Can you keep your word just once in your life?
You wanted to delete your account. So go ahead.
Be a man for once in your life.
You wanted to delete your account. So go ahead.
Be a man for once in your life.
You only give profits to your favorites here. I clearly showed you that when I placed my bet of 5 million, the app displayed a payout of around 7 million. I'm not asking for anything extra—I should at least receive the 7 million that was shown when I placed my bet.
You can't just change the rules without informing anyone. This looks like a clear scam. I've been placing bets on this platform since the beginning, and suddenly the rules changed overnight.
On top of that, you only listen to and respond to certain people. The rest of us don't even get a proper reply, let alone a fair resolution.
You can't just change the rules without informing anyone. This looks like a clear scam. I've been placing bets on this platform since the beginning, and suddenly the rules changed overnight.
On top of that, you only listen to and respond to certain people. The rest of us don't even get a proper reply, let alone a fair resolution.
The algorithm hasn't changed, its unaware of "favorites" and my replies are more related to the hours I'm online than the people making requests.
I have always respected you. But if Tangled is declining, it's because of the people working under you. When I first joined, my entire family used Tangled, and we were all regular users. Now I'm the only one left.
The people working under you only know how to bootlick. They are pushing Tangled backwards instead of helping it grow. They don't even listen to or respond to ordinary users fairly.
Anyway, I've decided to delete Tangled as well. I wish you all the best with your loyal supporters.
