The most important oil number right now is based on data…
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The most important oil number right now is based on data the EIA calls “especially unreliable”
**The most important oil number right now is based on data the EIA calls “especially unreliable”**
Everyone is arguing about how much oil is still moving through Hormuz.
The EIA’s Q2 estimate is 4.9 million barrels a day.
Q4 2025 was 21.6 million.
That is a 16.7 million barrel gap.
Then you reach the methodology. AIS signals around Hormuz have become “especially unreliable.” The 2026 estimates are being revised often.
I’m giving the vessel count little weight until four other things move with it:
* Actual loading data
* War-risk insurance
* Regional crude spreads
* Refinery stock draws
I loaded the EIA report into Send to Capital with XLE, VLO, DAL, TLT and GLD:
https://marketontology.com/resolve/try
Which input should move first if the supply loss is as large as reported?
#industry
**The most important oil number right now is based on data the EIA calls “especially unreliable”**
Everyone is arguing about how much oil is still moving through Hormuz.
The EIA’s Q2 estimate is 4.9 million barrels a day.
Q4 2025 was 21.6 million.
That is a 16.7 million barrel gap.
Then you reach the methodology. AIS signals around Hormuz have become “especially unreliable.” The 2026 estimates are being revised often.
I’m giving the vessel count little weight until four other things move with it:
* Actual loading data
* War-risk insurance
* Regional crude spreads
* Refinery stock draws
I loaded the EIA report into Send to Capital with XLE, VLO, DAL, TLT and GLD:
https://marketontology.com/resolve/try
Which input should move first if the supply loss is as large as reported?
#industry
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