For over two decades, intelligence claims and political rhetoric surrounding weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) have shaped some of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of the 21st century. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was largely justified by the Bush administration on the assertion that Saddam Hussein possessed active WMD programs. Those claims later proved to be unsubstantiated.
Since then, a similar pattern of warnings has emerged—this time concerning Iran . Successive Israeli prime ministers, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu, have repeatedly declared that Iran is on the brink of producing a nuclear weapon. From speeches at the United Nations with cartoonish bomb diagrams to classified briefings, these urgent warnings have been consistent, frequent—and yet, for over 15 years, a nuclear-armed Iran has not materialized.