Who wins the 2026 World Cup? A model vs the betting market…
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Who wins the 2026 World Cup? A model vs the betting market
Tool: Python + Pillow. Source: Polymarket (Gamma + CLOB APIs) for the market prices; a Monte-Carlo Elo simulation for the model. Each bar is a team's chance to win the Cup — teal = the market, violet = my model — with gold stars for past titles. There's a live version that scores the model against the market as results come in: mli3w.github.io/world-vs-model . Research/education only, not gambling.
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Tool: Python + Pillow. Source: Polymarket (Gamma + CLOB APIs) for the market prices; a Monte-Carlo Elo simulation for the model. Each bar is a team's chance to win the Cup — teal = the market, violet = my model — with gold stars for past titles. There's a live version that scores the model against the market as results come in: mli3w.github.io/world-vs-model . Research/education only, not gambling.
#education
source
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