Visualizing 10 Years of NFL Travel Stress: Mapping 2,500+…
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Visualizing 10 Years of NFL Travel Stress: Mapping 2,500+ Flights vs. Closing Line Efficiency
**Data & Tools:**
* **Dataset:** 10 years of NFL scheduling data (2014–2024), spatial flight vector coordinates, and consensus closing odds.
* **Visualization Tool:** Built using Three.js / WebGL for rendering the 3D flight paths and custom UI cards.
**Key Findings:**
1. **West Coast to East Coast (1 PM EST Kickoffs):** The market absorbs \~1.2 to 1.5 points of line movement for West Coast travel. Betting against West Coast teams purely on body-clock shifts yields a 49.7% ATS cover rate—the drag is already fully priced in by oddsmakers.
2. **Short Rest + Extreme Distance (5 Days / 2,000+ Miles):** Public perception over-adjusts lines by up to 2.5 points. Fading public consensus on heavy rest-deficit road teams yielded a +2.4% ROI over closing lines historically.
3. **Altitude Impact:** Statistically significant only when paired with a second consecutive away game on short rest.
*Full disclosure: I built an open beta terminal (****SeeBet****) to visualize these spatial situational factors for upcoming slates. You can explore the interactive 3D map live at* *** www.seebet.ai ****.*
#education
source
**Data & Tools:**
* **Dataset:** 10 years of NFL scheduling data (2014–2024), spatial flight vector coordinates, and consensus closing odds.
* **Visualization Tool:** Built using Three.js / WebGL for rendering the 3D flight paths and custom UI cards.
**Key Findings:**
1. **West Coast to East Coast (1 PM EST Kickoffs):** The market absorbs \~1.2 to 1.5 points of line movement for West Coast travel. Betting against West Coast teams purely on body-clock shifts yields a 49.7% ATS cover rate—the drag is already fully priced in by oddsmakers.
2. **Short Rest + Extreme Distance (5 Days / 2,000+ Miles):** Public perception over-adjusts lines by up to 2.5 points. Fading public consensus on heavy rest-deficit road teams yielded a +2.4% ROI over closing lines historically.
3. **Altitude Impact:** Statistically significant only when paired with a second consecutive away game on short rest.
*Full disclosure: I built an open beta terminal (****SeeBet****) to visualize these spatial situational factors for upcoming slates. You can explore the interactive 3D map live at* *** www.seebet.ai ****.*
#education
source
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