I plotted % of population under 14 vs % over 65 for every…
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I plotted % of population under 14 vs % over 65 for every country — the world is splitting into two demographic realities with almost no middle ground
I pulled age structure data from the World Bank for 200+ countries and plotted the percentage of each country's population under 14 against the percentage over 65.
The result is interesting: there are two clear clusters.
**Cluster 1 — Young and growing (bottom-right):**
Africa dominates. Niger has 50% of its population under 14 and less than 3% over 65. These countries will double in population within a generation regardless of what happens to fertility, because the young people are already born.
**Cluster 2 — Old and shrinking (top-left):**
Europe and East Asia. Japan has 28% over 65 and only 12% under 14. Italy, Germany, South Korea follow close behind. These countries are locked into decline.
The gap in the middle is almost empty. Countries are on one trajectory or the other. There is no gradual transition — most of the movement happened decades ago and the two groups are now diverging further.
**Some other things I noticed exploring the data:**
\- Latin America sits right at the inflection point — they could go either way
\- The Gulf states break the pattern: young populations but low growth (immigration-driven demographics)
\- South Korea and Japan are aging faster than any European country
Interactive scatter plot with all 200+ countries: worldstats.io/research/aging-vs-growing http://worldstats.io/research/aging-vs-growing
Source: World Bank Open Data
Tools: Next.js, custom SVG
#education
source
I pulled age structure data from the World Bank for 200+ countries and plotted the percentage of each country's population under 14 against the percentage over 65.
The result is interesting: there are two clear clusters.
**Cluster 1 — Young and growing (bottom-right):**
Africa dominates. Niger has 50% of its population under 14 and less than 3% over 65. These countries will double in population within a generation regardless of what happens to fertility, because the young people are already born.
**Cluster 2 — Old and shrinking (top-left):**
Europe and East Asia. Japan has 28% over 65 and only 12% under 14. Italy, Germany, South Korea follow close behind. These countries are locked into decline.
The gap in the middle is almost empty. Countries are on one trajectory or the other. There is no gradual transition — most of the movement happened decades ago and the two groups are now diverging further.
**Some other things I noticed exploring the data:**
\- Latin America sits right at the inflection point — they could go either way
\- The Gulf states break the pattern: young populations but low growth (immigration-driven demographics)
\- South Korea and Japan are aging faster than any European country
Interactive scatter plot with all 200+ countries: worldstats.io/research/aging-vs-growing http://worldstats.io/research/aging-vs-growing
Source: World Bank Open Data
Tools: Next.js, custom SVG
#education
source
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