Did #PAGASA make a mistake in forecasting #Typhoon #OPONG…
6 reactions
Did #PAGASA make a mistake in forecasting #Typhoon #OPONG ?
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
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