3 reactions
RAINY VALENTINES
Two low-pressure areas (#LPAs) may form near the country in the days leading to Valentine’s weekend, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (#PAGASA) said Wednesday, even as no weather disturbance is currently being monitored within or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (#PAR).
Two low-pressure areas (#LPAs) may form near the country in the days leading to Valentine’s weekend, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (#PAGASA) said Wednesday, even as no weather disturbance is currently being monitored within or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (#PAR).
1
1
1
6 reactions
Did #PAGASA make a mistake in forecasting #Typhoon #OPONG ?
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
5
1
1 reactions
HEAT INDEX FORECAST
April 24, 2024
45°C - DANGER
Data Source: PAGASA
#Tangled #philippines #cttoofphotonotmine #pagasa
April 24, 2024
45°C - DANGER
Data Source: PAGASA
#Tangled #philippines #cttoofphotonotmine #pagasa
1