6 reactions
Did #PAGASA make a mistake in forecasting #Typhoon #OPONG ?
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
Answer: No, PAGASA was able to forecast it well!
Explanation: The cone of Uncertainty is designed to represent the range of LIKELY PATHS. If #Opong 's actual track stayed within the cone, even if it has slightly shifted down south than the original forecast... it remains valid and accurate within the expected threshold.
Conclusion: This is not a forecast failure. The forecast was well within the expected accuracy limits. This is a realistic representation of forecast uncertainty as there is no 100% accurate forecast!
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11 reactions
Our city is now under signal number 3 of Tropical Storm Opong. It's been raining heavily here since last night.
The eye of the storm passes by just in front of the bay area of our city. Thankfully, the wind is not that strong (from 89 km/h up to 117 km/h). However, some houses made of light materials have already suffered some damage.
I hope the weather improves later today. The forecast says, the weather will improve around 11 am.
sources:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/v2eejnmTiWnPPBsH9
https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin
#storm #opong
The eye of the storm passes by just in front of the bay area of our city. Thankfully, the wind is not that strong (from 89 km/h up to 117 km/h). However, some houses made of light materials have already suffered some damage.
I hope the weather improves later today. The forecast says, the weather will improve around 11 am.
sources:
https://maps.app.goo.gl/v2eejnmTiWnPPBsH9
https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin
#storm #opong
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