I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of

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I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Hungary's April 2026 election. Orbán's 16-year rule is a coin flip.

**Data source:** Polling data aggregated from the Vox Populi database (kozvelemeny.org)

**Tools:** Python (matplotlib), hierarchical Bayesian model with 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations

**More details:** https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-02-09/
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I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Hungary's April…

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